Lobbies, Media, and Unelected Officials Cont'd 

But first the News:

Two years ago

Seven years ago:

 Review of Video 3 :

Models of the Foreign Policy Decision-Making Process: can the US be a rational actor in world affairs?

The Rational Actor Model

Take the decisions concerning US responses to Sept 11, 2001, summarized in Bob Woodward's series in the Washington Post: part 1, part 5. Or an example under the Clinton Administration: US and NATO intervention in Kosevo (NYT 18.6.99) parts I - II -III- was there a strategy in pursuit of the US national interest? Is it in the US national interest to preserve and expand NATO as an effective military and peace-keeping alliance?

Did President Bush act as a rational actor responding to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait on Aug 2, 1990?

What do you make of the present Obama Administration's policies toward Iran, Iraq, and Israel? Of possible divisions between the Defense Department and the State Department? Of divisions among Democrats in Congress?

The Bureaucratic Politics Model

bureaucratic/governmental politics models vs rational actor model (unless any outcome is "rational" - as a Hegelian might argue): crisis strategic vs intermestic issues..need to relate the decision-making model to the kind of policy issue under discussion.

Energy policy illustrating intermestic issues...cf Jimmy Carter's MEW ("moral equivalent of war") speech in your presidency video but 83 cttees and subcttees of House were involved in 1977-78! (worse than tax reform!)

"Groupthink"

Good examples would include Reagan's "Star Wars" decision (in the Power Game No. 3 video - here is an update with new tests planned) and Irangate (Moyers video). How much room for discussion and disagreement is there within the current Obama Administration? Critical role of the National Security Advisor?

Elite Theory:

Class interests? Ivy League? Wall St. lawyers? "What's good for General Motors is good for the USA." Neo-Cons under the Bush Administration - a coherent ideology?

Interest Group Politics - lobbies, eg. China Lobby, AIPAC

Ethnic lobbies, as we have seen, also media like NYT columnist Bill Safire, who discouraged Bobby Inman from being Secretary of Defense in the Second Clinton Administration (Inman had stopped leaks to Israeli intelligence after Israel's bombing of Osirak, Baghdad, in 1981 - and producing Jonathan Pollard)

Social constructivism
How was Noriega's image changed from anti-Communist crusader to drug dealer? Usama Bin Laden as Robin Hood? (depending on who is doing the constructing).
 
Prospect Theory
When winning, be risk averse: prefer $100 to a 50% chance of winning $200; but take risks to avoid losses even if you risk losing more: prefer 50% of losing $200 to a certain loss of $100.

From last time: just how influential is the "Israel Lobby"?

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March 2, 2009
Department of Government, College of Liberal Arts, University of Texas at Austin.
Questions, Comments, and Suggestions to chenry@mail.utexas.edu