War looming while Islamists win elections in Turkey - what will theydo?

["Clement M. Henry" <chenry@mail.la.utexas.edu>]

Here is a cynical account of the Bush Administration's projected war
against Iraq - it just possibly may be accurate, despite some recent sweet
talk, and Bush is clearly reinforced at home by the Republican victories
in Tuesday's elections and may be encouraged to launch our first "imperial
war" as it is described below --CH

---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Thu, 7 Nov 2002 06:37:25 -0500
From: Mid-East Realities <MERL@middleeast.org>
To: MER <MER@middleeast.org>
Subject: New Turks Say 'No' as Islamic Parties Gain Everywhere

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                  NEW TURKISH LEADERS MAYBE TO SAY 'NO' TO U.S.

        ISLAMIC PARTIES GAINING EVERYWHERE ELECTIONS ARE HELD

                             "Arab and Muslim populations think the war
                              against terrorism is nothing but a war against
                              Islam, the culture of Islam, the Arab culture.
                              The Islamist parties have been able to exploit this."

MID-EAST REALITIES - MER - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington, DC - 7 November 2002:    The Bush crowd may have won big in the US on
Tuesday, cleverly frightening and manipulating the "wartime" electorate with unprecedented millions and Presidential drop-ins.  But when it comes to the affairs of the world the situation is not quite so under their domination and control.
    For months now other nations have cautiously keep the U.S. at bay refusing a Security Council 'endorsement' resolution the Americans have been demanding.    In the Middle East the big countries of Saudi Arabia and Egypt have been expressing ongoing 'doubts' about the U.S. course; the Saudis have actually said 'no' to use of the giant U.S. bases in their country; a coup-attempt almost rocked the alternative Qatar; and now Turkey is joining in saying 'no' (maybe) to use of the major Pentagon facilities in that key country.  Add to this the outcomes in the recent elections in both Pakistan and Morocco, two countries with very close military and regime ties to the Americans.
    Now don't get us wrong about all this.  The U.S. and Israel are quite intent on forcing Iraq into the fold, the new fogging terminology of 'regime change' notwithstanding.  The Empire and its regional strongman have already taken the firm decision to take more direct control, through both military and CIA/Mossad means, of the politics as well as the resources of the entire region; and the Israelis are readying for their chance to 'deal' with the Palestinians once and for all.
     The planning for the American imperial war is definitely full speed ahead, one way or another, regardless of all the warnings eminating from so many quarters -- including such personalities as Walter Cronkite and the Archbishop of Canterbury of late.  And while all the talking and debating has been going at the U.N., the greater reality is that the U.S. and Israel have actually been using this situation to partially obscure the massive build-up of overwhelming military forces in the region...all the while allowing just enough doubt to prevent the once-feared Iraqi preemption.
    With the huge regional military build-up phase now far advanced; with the additional political power derived from Tuesday's American election; and with the U.N. about to abdicate while claiming otherwise; historic modern-day techno-war 'preempted' in the Middle East by the world's only current superpower looms...and our entire world will never be the same.



                                   TURKISH LEADER WON'T OK USE OF BASES

ANKARA, Turkey (AP - 6 November) -- The leader of Turkey's winning party refused Wednesday to commit to allowing U.S. warplanes to use Turkish bases in any war with Iraq and declined to say whether his country's close military ties with Israel will be maintained.

In an exclusive interview with The Associated Press, Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party said Turks consider Israeli policies toward Palestinians to be ``terrorism,'' but added that Turkey would not link its close economic relations with Israel to popular anger.

Erdogan is the power broker in the Justice party, which won a massive election victory Sunday. He is ineligible to serve as prime minister, because he was convicted of reading a poem that courts deemed anti-secular. His party has been meeting throughout the week to discuss who will become prime minister, but Erdogan will most certainly continue to be its most influential voice.

Erdogan once belonged to a pro-Islamic party that the military forced from power for confronting the secular establishment. He has made it clear, however, that the Justice party is looking to follow a moderate, pro-Western stand. And he says that while his party opposes a war in Iraq, it would respect decisions taken by the United Nations.

``The most preferred result is to resolve this issue in peace,'' Erdogan said. ``We don't want blood, tears or death.''

Turkey, which borders Iraq, was a key launching pad for U.S. aircraft during the 1991 Gulf War. The United States already has some 50 aircraft in southern Turkey at Incirlik air base and would be eager to use the sprawling NATO facility if there is a conflict with Iraq.

Erdogan spoke as the head of Turkey's military, Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, was in the United States to discuss Iraq. The military is expected to have a dominant say in crucial security or foreign policy issues, such as Iraq and Israel.

When asked if the new government would agree to a request to use Turkish bases, Erdogan said: ``I don't find it appropriate to talk about indefinite results.''

``We don't know what the outcome will be from the United Nations. The United States has not clarified its position yet,'' he said.

Turkey fears fighting in Iraq could destabilize the region and harm the fragile Turkish economy as it struggles to recover from a brutal recession that has left 2 million people unemployed.

Turkey also worries that with an ouster of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, minority Kurds who control an autonomous zone in northern Iraq could declare an independent state. That, they fear, could inspire Turkey's large Kurdish population. Kurdish guerrillas demanding autonomy have been fighting Turkish soldiers in the southeast for 15 years.

Fighting between Israel and the Palestinians is also an emotional issue for most Turks, who share the Islamic faith with most Palestinians. The Turkish press, and in particular the pro-Islamic press, has harshly criticized Israel and especially its prime minister, Ariel Sharon, during Israeli incursions into Palestinian-controlled territory.

At the same time, Turkey is Israel's closest ally in the region. Turkey and Israel have close economic ties, and the Israeli and Turkish militaries have held joint air force exercises together.

``The whole Turkish population is very critical of what is going on in Palestine,'' Erdogan said. ``Our public does not view this as anything anti-Israeli or anti-Semitic. They see it as the terrorism of Sharon.''  ``Turkey has to play a more active role,'' he added.

Erdogan said it was too early to specify what actions Turkey might take, but he did not rule out scaling back military ties. ``It would not be correct to talk about these before accepting the official duties of government,'' he said.



                             ISLAMISTS GAIN VOTES AS U.S. ACTS
                                            By Neil MacFarquhar

[NEW YORK TIMES, 6 November]   CAIRO  —  The perception that Washington remains hostile toward Islam is helping drive the victories of some religiously oriented parties across the Islamic and Arab world, experts in the region said today.

Most Islamist parties have been gradually gaining supporters for years as secular parties have failed to solve grinding economic and social problems.
But their sudden gain in votes in recent elections in Pakistan, Bahrain, Morocco and Turkey is being viewed as a sign that voters — at least in those few countries that actually allow free elections — want to assert pride in their faith to the outside world.

"The population in Turkey, the population in Pakistan or the population in Morocco did not vote for Islamic parties just because they believe they have the capacity to solve social and economic problems," Muhammad Darif, a professor of political science at the Hassan II University law school at Mohammedia, Morocco, said in a telephone interview.

"Arab and Muslim populations think the war against terrorism is nothing but a war against Islam, the culture of Islam, the Arab culture," Professor Darif added. "The Islamist parties have been able to exploit this."

The recent election results may serve as an opportunity or a risk for the United States, the experts said. They said working with moderate Islamic groups could give Washington credibility it lacks, while opposing them would only fertilize already blooming anti-American sentiment.

"If the U.S. considers anyone who talks about Islam a criminal and pushes the Turkish military to suppress them, it will deprive itself of an ally," said Abdelmonem Said, the director of Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, speaking of the victorious Justice and Development Party in Turkey.

Although no single pattern fits all four countries, the results in each of the elections gave religiously oriented parties far larger margins than expected.
In Turkey, the winning party is likely to be the first in years to be able to govern without a coalition partner, as it is expected to take more than 360 of the 550 seats in Parliament.

Voters in Pakistan and Bahrain last month also gave religious parties a significant voice in their Parliaments. Islamist candidates took 78 of 392 seats in Pakistan's Parliament, while such parties control about half of the 40 seats in the newly elected assembly in Bahrain.

In Morocco, Islamist groups took 42 of 325 seats in elections in September, up from 14 in the last election.

In Bahrain, most of whose people belong to the Shiite branch of Islam, Parliament — the first elected in nearly 30 years — would most likely have been completely run by Islamist candidates but for a boycott by the widely popular Shiite organization. It urged voters to stay away to protest constitutional changes that widened the king's powers.

Although the United States Navy fleet for the Persian Gulf region is headquartered in Bahrain, the presence of the base was not even raised as an election issue.

"The government's bad management and poor performance gave the chance to the religious groups to operate and get support," said Sawsan Shair, a columnist for the daily Al Ayam in Bahrain. "Their members have been operating for almost 10 years — building clinics, sponsoring orphans, distributing aid and food and medicine."

The same is true to an extent in Pakistan, although there hostility toward the American presence in the region, and Gen. Pervez Musharraf's support for Washington's campaign against terrorism, were open campaign issues for the religiously oriented parties.

"Issues of identity and Islamic pride are there, and the war on terrorism was a contributing factor," said Rasul Bakhsh Rais, a professor of political science and international relations at the Lahore University of Management Science. But he and others asserted that it was not the main factor.

"There is a deep sense of betrayal among all Muslim people that their elites, their governments, their institutions have all failed them," Mr. Rais said. "People have moved away from the mainstream parties hoping that the religious political parties will provide them with a better alternative."

In Morocco, the most ardent Islamist groups are banned, so those candidates running were allied with the government and unlikely to attack it outright for any links to the West. But they did manage to get the message across in a subtle way by talking about the need to preserve Islamic identity and protect the Muslim world.

That issue seemed to play little role in Turkey, where the overwhelming sentiment among voters was an ardent desire to throw out of office anyone associated with the country's collapsing economy.

The Youth Party, for example, which actually ran something of an anti-American, anti-International Monetary Fund platform, failed to make the threshold of 10 percent of the vote needed to get into Parliament.

The victorious party in Turkey, led by men who recast themselves from Islamists to social conservatives, has taken moderate foreign policy positions. It favors continuing membership in NATO and joining the European Union.

Those would be anathema to more radical religiously oriented groups in the region, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, the root stock of all such groups in the Arab world.

"They are isolationist, parochial," said Mr. Said. "Their point of view is that we have to keep in mind that we are in permanent conflict since the time of the Crusades until now."



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