Weekly Arab Press Review (fwd)

["Clement M. Henry" <chenry@mail.la.utexas.edu>]

---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Mon, 04 Nov 2002 14:21:34 +0300 (AST)
From: Arab Press <arabpress@csfs-kuwait.org>
To: alnakib@csfs-kuwait.org
Subject: Weekly Arab Press Review

                           Weekly Arab Press Review
                             # 7 : Nov. 4, 2002

                  The Center for Strategic and Future Studies
                              Kuwait University

The Center for Strategic and Future Studies is a Kuwaiti think-tank,
affiliated with Kuwait University, and is directed by Dr. Shafeeq Ghabra.

The following report reviews the comments and reactions of Arab op-ed writers
in a selection of 13 Arabic newspapers, on the prevailing news issues in the
Arab world each week.

This week’s issue:  France and Russia: From disapproving to opposing a U.S.
war on Iraq

France and Russia’s objection to a U.S. war on Iraq has not been a mere
tactical maneuver that lies within the scope of international balances of
power.  Both countries, and France in particular, have shown full-blown
opposition to this war, which was made clear at the UN Security Council.  How
and why is this the case, and where are France and Russia going with this
matter, in the eyes of the Arab world?

Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper (London, Oct. 24) believes that France, partly
supported by Russia, is following a strategy that might succeed in thwarting
U.S. efforts to overthrow Saddam Hussein.  “If French president Jacques Chirac
manages to prevent the war and then save Saddam’s regime, he will be in a
position to bolster French interests in Iraq.  For similar reasons, Russian
President Vladimir Putin would like to hamper U.S. efforts by imposing a
strict timetable for the new resolution.”

Writer Abdelwahed Al-Hamid said in Al-Riyadh Newspaper (Saudi Arabia, Oct. 21)
that France has historically provided evidence of its rejection of U.S.
hegemony.  In the climax of the dispute between the western and eastern blocs,
late French President Charles De Gaulle clearly expressed his rejection of
this hegemony. “Chirac’s France is not much different from De Gaulle’s.  We
have just seen France insist on a bigger role for the United Nations in
dealing with the weapons inspection in Iraq and how the United States has had
to bow to French efforts.”

Saudi writer Mahmoud Mahfouz said in Al-Riyadh newspaper (Saudi Arabia, Oct.
22), that “every state seeks its own interests and defends the position that
guarantees it these interests.  It also participates in serious negotiations
with other parties to increase its share in the cake and guarantee its
interests in the region.  Thus Russia tries to find a balance between its
political and economic interests in Iraq now, and the possible profits from
accepting a U.S. strike.  France is doing the same.  The Iraqi cake is
tempting for it is full of economic opportunities and spoils, and different
states have only to agree with the United States to guarantee their interests
and their share in the anticipated earnings.”

Lebanese writer Randa Taqyeddine, director of Al-Hayat newspaper’s Paris
office, said (London, Oct. 30), that there is a consensus in France among the
different parties (left and right) to oppose the U.S. war aimed at “changing
the Iraqi regime, not out of love for this regime but because such a war
constitutes a risky adventure with unknown results ... France’s refusal to
support Bush’s venture puts the country in a predicament, for it jeopardizes
French interests and its relations with NATO states, but at the same time it
is a logical and wise decision.”  Taqyeddine asked if France will be able to
stay out of Bush’s alliance, and what the cost of such a position would
be.  “Though they insist on rejecting the U.S. adventure, Chirac and his
Foreign Minister realize the difficult task they are facing.  But are they
able to spare France a war without getting dragged into it?”

Liberal Kuwaiti writer Hamed Al-Homoud said in Al-Hayat newspaper (London,
Oct. 29), that “Germany and France, both important members of the European
Union and NATO are against any war the United States will wage without
consulting them, fearing such unilateral world dominance.  Their position is
also engendered by economic factors, as these two states know very well that
their companies will not get the important contracts that U.S. companies will
get in post-Saddam Iraq.”  Russia is one of the countries that will be most
seriously affected by a regime change in Iraq, added Al-Homoud, as Iraq owes
Russia eight billion dollars in debts.  The Russian government and opposition
(communist and far right parties) have good ties with Baghdad.  Russia is more
afraid than Germany and France of losing out of the Iraqi market after a
regime change, because the latter countries can compete with U.S. companies
long term, but there is weak hope that Russian companies can do the same.

Al-Akhbar newspaper (Egypt, Oct. 22) quoted Russian expert Colonel General
Leonid Ivashov, Vice-President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, as
saying that “the United States is facing an economic crisis that can only be
overcome by capturing oil-rich regions of the world.”  The newspaper added
that “the United States will carry out an attack against Iraq for profound
reasons and will not be deterred by a UN Security Council resolution.”

The Al-Watan newspaper (Saudi Arabia, Oct. 22), said Chirac is the De Gaulle
of our era, as he is playing a historic role in the Middle East and is
strongly defending the powers of the Security Council.

Jordanian writer Adnan Nasrawin said in Al-Dostour newspaper (Jordan, Oct.
20), that Chirac deserves to be described as “the hero of peace diplomacy and
international law,” as he affirmed to Americans and the whole world that no
state can decide to wage war against another state without getting the green
light from the Security Council.

Writer Hayat Al-Hweik Attiya said in an open letter to Chirac, published by Al-
Dostour newspaper (Jordan, Oct. 20), that this is a historic opportunity for
France to take the lead in Europe: “an opportunity for you (Chirac) -- with
the support of Germany (which has regained its strength and has shifted from
its Nazi history to your human policy) and of Russia, China and all of
international public opinion – to prove that independence is not a myth and to
give birth to a logic that is different from that of the cowboy’s.”

Writer Mahmoud Awadh said in Al-Watan newspaper (Saudi Arabia, Oct. 23),
that “France knows that the United States can move to hit Iraq at any time and
that neither France nor any other state can prevent it from carrying out its
plans.  But in this case, the international community would not be accountable
for the consequences of such unilateral action, which would lead that
international arena into a state of anarchy in regards to international law,
and would pave the way for the law of the jungle.”

_________________________________________
Center for Strategic and Future Studies
Kuwait University
Tel : (+965) 483-4197
Fax : (+965) 482-4645