~~GULFWIRE~~PERSPECTIVES~~OCTOBER 12, 2002~~A LOOK AT IRAQ'S FUTURE:WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES OF REGIME CHANGE? (fwd)

["Clement M. Henry" <chenry@mail.la.utexas.edu>]

More on Kuwaiti perceptions of US-Iraq

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Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 10:46:38 -0500
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Subject: ~~GULFWIRE~~PERSPECTIVES~~OCTOBER 12,
     2002~~A LOOK AT IRAQ'S FUTURE: WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES OF REGIME CHANGE?

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          INFORMATION AND INSIGHTS ON MIDDLE EAST DEVELOPMENTS
             NATIONAL COUNCIL ON U.S. ARAB RELATIONS AND
        THE U.S.-GCC CORPORATE COOPERATION COMMITTEE SECRETARIAT

                             OCTOBER 12, 2002

  A LOOK AT IRAQ'S FUTURE: WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES OF REGIME CHANGE?

===========================GulfWire~~Perspectives=========================

Center for Strategic and Future Studies
Kuwait University

The Center for Strategic and Future Studies is a Kuwaiti think-tank,
affiliated with Kuwait University, and is directed by Dr. Shafeeq Ghabra.

The Center for Strategic and Future Studies recently hosted a closed-door
roundtable discussion on the future of Iraq in the backdrop of the U.S.
efforts to change Iraq's regime.  A number of Kuwaiti and other Arab
intellectuals of different cultural and political backgrounds (Islamists,
liberals and Arab nationalists) participated in the debate.

The participants were:

Ismael Al-Shatti - Chairman of the Kuwait-based Gulf Institute for Future
Studies
Ahmad Al-Taqsha - Assistant editor-in-chief at the Kuwait-based Al-Qabas
daily  newspaper
Jamal Hussein - Al-Qabas correspondent in Kurdistan
Khalil Ali Haidar – Writer in Kuwait-based Al-Watan daily newspaper
Shamlan Al-Essa - Head of Kuwait University's Department of Political
Science
Ali Al-Tarrah - Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at Kuwait University
Ali Al-Zemai - Former Kuwaiti minister and Chairman of Aref Investment Group
Abdel-Rida Assiri - Professor of Political Science at Kuwait University
Shafeeq Ghabra - Director of the Center for Strategic and Future Studies and
Professor of Political Science at Kuwait University

				          *  *  *  *

The participants collectively maintained that a change in Iraq's regime
would redefine the predominant security issues that have existed in Iraq for
the past five decades, and would seriously impact the politics and economies
of Gulf and Arab nations.  They underscored the need for Arab intellectuals
and decision-makers to consider the consequences that might result from a
U.S.-led regime change in Iraq.

Some members of the discussion argued that the United States appears to have
a short-term policy in dealing with the situation.  These participants held
that the U.S. push for change in Iraq is a hasty reaction to its failure to
contain and manage crises in the Middle East.  Furthermore, some projected
that this push for the toppling of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's regime is
in effect the first glimpse of a new U.S. Middle East policy – an
attack-and-see policy.

Others said the current situation is nothing but a reaction by non-Arab
states to settle the political, economic, developmental and cultural
problems of the Arab world – problems the Arabs themselves have been unable
to resolve.

However, some participants agreed that a change in Iraq "could be a solution
for some of the problems facing the Arab world."  A U.S. presence in Iraq,
moreover, will have its effects on oil strategies and the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Some participants believed that Arab countries should accept the changes and
try to deal with the new situation to avoid jeopardizing their short-term
and long-term interests.  "[Arabs] should accept responsibility in the wake
of the coming change. Even though we can't stop it, we should stop doubting
U.S. intentions and abandon our anti-change [in Iraq] stance, in order to
avoid giving the United States reasons to exceed 'the limits'."

On this point, another participant spoke out on the need for dialogue
between the Arab World and the United States.  He said, "We cannot object to
changing Iraq's regime. We do not have a strategic solution as an
alternative. [Our existing policy] is to adopt provisional solutions to
minimize the effects of change. Yet even under such a strategy, we cannot
help [the Americans] meet our societies on common grounds, because we do not
know the [U.S.] plan."

Some members believed that the United States continues to "misinterpret the
situation in the region" and continues "to give simplified solutions to very
complicated issues, such as the case with Iraq."  They also believed that
the U.S. administration, "with its new group of influential pro-Israel
right-wingers" will unlikely install a regime that is drastically different
from the current one.

One participant asked whether the war on Iraq is a U.S. expansionist war or
a war to liberate the Iraqi people, restore justice and ensure welfare in
the region.  Is it logical to allow the Arab culture to be altered by a
foreign party that does not quite understand it?  The U.S. has repeatedly
exhibited its negative view of Islamic culture, and herein lies the danger,
said another participant.  That danger: altering Iraq's identity, and hence
the region's identity, by dividing Iraq into different entities.

One participant said that some Islamists are glad that the United States
will topple the Iraqi sectarian regime.  "They say let the United States
carry out the difficult mission and we will reap the benefits in the medium
and long run."

Other participants argued for the need for Arabs to lay the foundations of
democracy and women's rights as essential moves to liberate the Arabs from
several restrictions.  They argued that plurality in Iraq could only be
accomplished through a federal regime.  Most participants believe the new
Iraq will be built on liberal economic principles and that Iraqi funds will
be invested in rebuilding the country.  A new Iraq, they added, will reflect
its heterogeneous population - where Arabs live side by side with Kurds,
Assyrians and Turkmen.  It will not be dominated by the United States, nor
will it reflect American values – at least not the in long run - since it is
evident through Iraq's history that Iraqis are adamant about their
independence and have a tradition of rebellion against big powers.

In regards to the expected Kuwaiti role in post-change Iraq, a majority of
the participants proposed that Kuwait will most probably be asked to aid in
the reconstruction of Iraq and that Kuwaiti-Iraqi relations will flourish
afterwards.  However, this means that Kuwait will most likely be pressured
to drop all pre-1990 Iraqi debts to Kuwait, in addition to abandoning its
claims for Gulf War reparations.  "Kuwait's policy towards Iraq will require
a great deal of follow-up and readiness, for we are on the threshold of a
new crucial period, one that entails great skill and effort.  It is evident
that wars waged by big powers create new power vacuums and cause the
collapse of state and social structures.  This requires an adaptation to the
emerging political situation, a reunification of regional ranks, and a
diligent review of many of the political practices we have utilized during
the preceding decades."

"Though it is still very difficult to deduce the possible consequences of a
forced change in Iraq's regime, due to the many unknown variables", the
participants collectively agreed that the new regime in Iraq "will be better
than the current one."
_________________________________________
Center for Strategic and Future Studies
Kuwait University
Tel : (+965) 483-4197
Fax : (+965) 482-4645

===========================GulfWire~~Perspectives=========================

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