~~GULFWIRE~~VOICES OF THE REGION -- WEEKLY ARAB PRESS REVIEW~~WEEKOF OCTOBER 7, 2002 (fwd)

["Clement M. Henry" <chenry@mail.la.utexas.edu>]

FYI

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Clement M. Henry
Professor of Government
University of Texas at Austin
Austin TX 78712
tel 471-5121, fax 471-1061

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Subject: ~~GULFWIRE~~VOICES OF THE REGION -- WEEKLY ARAB PRESS REVIEW~~WEEK
    OF OCTOBER 7, 2002

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 ***** GULFWIRE ~~ VOICES OF THE REGION ~ WEEKLY ARAB PRESS REVIEW ******
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           THE NATIONAL COUNCIL ON U.S.-ARAB RELATIONS AND
            THE U.S.-GCC CORPORATE COOPERATION COMMITTEE

    THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND FUTURE STUDIES, KUWAIT UNIVERSITY

                      WEEK OF OCTOBER 7, 2002

=========================================================================
   COMMENTS AND REACTIONS OF ARAB OP-ED WRITERS IN ARABIC NEWSPAPERS ON
                  PREVAILING NEWS ISSUES IN THE ARAB WORLD
=========================================================================
THE WEEKLY ARAB PRESS REVIEW IS A PRODUCTION OF THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND
FUTURE STUDIES, KUWAIT UNIVERSITY AND IS REPRINTED HERE WITH PERMISSION
=========================================================================
THE VIEWS CONTAINED IN THESE ITEMS DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF
       GULFWIRE OR THE NATIONAL COUNCIL ON U.S.-ARAB RELATIONS
=========================================================================

Weekly Arab Press Review

The Center for Strategic and Future Studies
Kuwait University

The following report reviews the comments and reactions of Arab op-ed
writers in a selection of 13 Arabic newspapers, on the prevailing news
issues in the Arab world each week.

This week's issue:
Anticipated changes in the region after an attack on Iraq.

The U.S. plan for strikes on Iraq and its possible repercussions on the
region are now truly decisive and unavoidable.  Some writers believe it is a
U.S. conspiracy to change the map of the region.  Others, on the other hand,
say Arab regimes have to realize the need to change their policies and to
lay the foundations for democracy and dialogue, rather than waiting for
changes to be imposed from the outside.

Shafeeq Ghabra, Director of the Center for Strategic and Future Studies and
Professor of Political Science at Kuwait University, wrote in Al-Rai Al-Aam
newspaper (Kuwait, Sept. 30), that the region is steering toward a period of
major change, "and saying it will only affect Iraq is a serious
underestimation of the gravity of the situation."  The coming changes will
deeply affect politics in the Arab world.  "The new conditions would create
the ground for the reforms we direly need ... it is important we conduct
these reforms ourselves, not the United States."

Writer Abdelhadi Boutaleb said in Al-Khaleej newspaper (United Arab
Emirates, Sept. 29), that the White House is hastily concocting a method to
turn the Arab region into a grand Middle East with different multiethnic and
multiracial entities.  This new Middle East will be created by dividing the
existent states or by annexing parts of them to non-Arab countries, above
all Israel and Turkey.  "Iraq will be the first experiment field to impose a
new democratic system set by the United States.  Taking lessons from this
experiment, the United States will impose the system on Iran and Syria,
followed by Saudi Arabia and other Arab states."

Massoud Dhaher, Professor of History at the Lebanese University, wrote in
Al-Khaleej (U.A.E., Sept. 29), that the "Arab order is passing through the
most serious extent of disintegration amidst the absence of any planning."

Sudanese writer Mohamed al-Hassan Ahmad said in al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper
(London, Sept. 24), that by seeking the support of Congress for his plan to
rearrange the Middle East, President Bush will receive "a mandate that is
open to all possibilities, including the division of Iraq or any other Arab
country, reshuffling governments, invading certain states, and settling
Palestinians in Jordan or Iraq."

Mustafa Al-Fiqqi, member of the Egyptian parliament and a pan-Arab writer
wrote in al-Hayat newspaper (London, Sept. 17), that the United States and
Israel, among others, do not, in their Middle East policies, distinguish
between the three major issues: war on terror, the Iraqi issue and the
Israeli-Arab conflict.  "The psychological war is leaving its clear trace,
with pressure exerted on Egypt, the reputation of Saudi Arabia smeared, and
Syria intimidated."

Former Lebanese Prime Minister Salim al-Hoss said in Assafir newspaper
(Lebanon, Sept. 17), that, as democratic practices are either completely
absent or very poor in Arab states, "the success of the U.S. military
campaign aimed at toppling the Iraqi regime and establishing a democratic
system would make all other Arab countries, including U.S. allies, the
target of similar campaigns in the future."

Mohamed Awadh, deputy editor-in-chief of the Akhbar al-Yom in Cairo, said in
Al-Hayat (London, Oct. 3) -- in responce to statements made by the U.S.
National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice that the values of freedom,
democracy and free enterprise do not stop at the edge of Islam -- that the
U.S. post-cold war strategy is allegedly focused on the establishment of
democracy and defending freedom in the Muslim world.  "The story was first
about Iraq and now it is about the whole Muslim world, which stretches from
Indonesia to the east, Nigeria to the west, and Sudan to the south, and it
so happens that oil is the common point between the different nations of
this part of the world.  That is why, for the first time ever, the United
States is not preoccupied with the cost of the war, for the simple reason
that Iraq is the bill, the cost and the prize."

Mohamed Abdulaziz Rabie, Professor of International Political Economy at the
al-Akhawain University in Morocco, said in al-Hayat (London, Sept. 25), that
the invasion, occupation, and change of regime in Iraq would result in a
massive and quasi-permanent military presence in Iraq.  This presence
constitutes a real threat for all Arab states and for Iran, and would
prevent these states from exercising their political rights and protecting
their national interests.  It also means, according to Rabie, full U.S.
control of the Gulf, Arab and Iranian oil sources.

Islamic analyst Fahmi al-Howeidi said in al-Watan newspaper (Kuwait, Oct.
1), that "when we contemplate the alliance between the United States and the
dictators of central Asian republics, we can easily deduce that the issue of
democracy becomes a U.S. preoccupation and a pretext only when a regime is
not in the service of U.S. interests.  The United States turned a blind eye
to Saddam's atrocities before the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, including the
gassing of Kurds in Halabja, and when you remove the democracy cover-up you
will only see oil and smell its odor."

Osama Saraya, editor-in-chief of al-Ahram al-Arabi, said in al-Anba
newspaper (Kuwait, Oct. 2), that Arab governments must understand the need
"to grant their people their economic, political and social rights, to put
an end to tyranny in the name of religion, and to pave the way for economic,
political, social, and cultural reforms."

========================================================================
ABOUT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND FUTURE STUDIES

Established in the year 2000, the Center for Strategic and Future Studies is
an independent Kuwaiti think-tank affiliated with Kuwait University.  The
governing body is a Board of Trustees comprised of 11 members from both
within and outside the university, representing a wide range of experience
and expertise in the public and private spheres.  Its focus is on major and
current strategic issues relating to Kuwait, the Gulf region, and the Middle
East.  The center seeks to build awareness and encourage debate on sensitive
issues, primarily in the realm of East/West discussions and strategic
issues.  In this capacity, the center tries to reach out to non-Islamic and
non-Arab nations and cultures in the spirit of debate, understanding, and
mutual tolerance.  In doing so, our activities include: conferences,
seminars, roundtable discussions, publications, media analyses, and
large-scale E-mail distributions of our reports and studies.

Center for Strategic and Future Studies
Kuwait University
Director:  Dr. Shafeeq Ghabra
Media & Research Coordinator: Farah Al-Nakib

Tel : (+965) 483-4197
Fax : (+965) 482-4645

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EDITOR'S COMMENT
GulfWire does not take an editorial position on the issues and opinions
reported here and aims to remain objective in coverage of developments in
the Arab Gulf states. However, it is important that among the insights we
provide, we bring the reality of contemporary opinion in the Gulf even if it
is sometimes stinging to the targets of its criticism.  We hope to
illuminate not infuriate. For those who rely on an understanding of
developments in the region to ignore the reality of public and official
sentiments in the Gulf is to move forward in these relationships at their
peril.

Patrick W. Ryan
Editor-in-Chief, GulfWire
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