From azza@pcpsr.org Mon Sep 01 08:02:26 2008

Date: Mon, 1 Sep 2008 08:55:48 -0500

From: "Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR)" <azza@pcpsr.org>

Subject: PSR Poll # 29 press release ( 28-30 August 2008)

 

 

1 September 2008

 

PRESS RELEASE

 

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (29)

 

While the gap between Mahmud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh widens in favor of

the former, and while the overwhelming majority opposes Hamas's military

action in Shijaiah in the Gaza Strip, almost two-thirds believe that

Abbas's term in office expires in January 2009 rather than January 2010

 

28-30 August 2008

 

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian

Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza

Strip between 28 and 30 August 2008. This period witnessed a relative

consolidation of the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip

and the release by Israel of about 200 Palestinian prisoners as a gesture

to President Mahmud Abbas. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults

interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of

error is 3%. This press release cover domestic Palestinian issues; issues

related to the peace process and Israeli-Palestinian relations will be

covered in a separate joint Palestinian-Israeli press release. For

further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid

Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

 

 

Main Findings:

 

Findings of the third quarter of 2008 indicate continued slow decline in

Hamas's popularity while Fateh's popularity remains stable as it was

during the second quarter. Similarly, findings show a slightly wider gap

between the popularity of President Abbas compared to that of Ismail

Haniyeh in favor of the former. Positive evaluation of the conditions of

Palestinians in the West Bank remains higher than that of conditions in

the Gaza Strip. This applies to overall conditions as well as those of

democracy and human rights. Findings show also significant opposition to

Hamas's military entry into Shijaiah in the Gaza Strip in early August.

They also show widespread belief that the term of President Abbas ends in

the first month of January 2009, as Hamas claims, and not in the first

month of 2010, as the presidency claims.

 

It was expected that the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel would lead to

improvement in Hamas's standing among the public. But the fact that Hamas

continues to lose public support might be due to strong opposition to its

behavior in dealing with Shijaiah incident which led to several deaths

and the escape of several members of the Hillis family to Israel.

Moreover, the fact that the Rafah crossing remained closed since the

ceasefire and that the other crossings were only partially opened might

have weakened Hamas's appeal. On the other hand, findings show an

improvement in the perception of security and safety in the West Bank

which might have been responsible in part for the improvement in Abbas's

standing. Moreover, Israel's release of about 200 Palestinian prisoners

at the end of August might have also played in Abbas's favor.

 

* The Gap between the standing of PA President Mahmud Abbas and Hamas's

Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh has increased to 14 percentage points

in favor of Abbas. If new presidential elections are held today, and

the only two candidates were Abbas and Haniyeh, the former would

receive the support of 53% and the latter 39%. This finding

represents a slight increase in the popularity of Abbas which stood

at 52% last June compared to 40% for Haniyeh. Haniyeh's popularity

reached its peak last March, in the aftermath of the breaching of the

Rafah border, when it stood at 47% compared to 46% for Abbas. If the

competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former

would receive 61% to Haniyeh's 34%. Level of non-participation in the

presidential elections would reach 37% if the competition was between

Abbas and Haniyeh and 27% if the competition was between Barghouti

and Haniyeh.

* Moreover, the gap between Fateh and Hamas increases from 12

percentage points last June to 14 percentage points in this poll. If

new parliamentary elections are to take place today, Hamas would

receive 29% (compared to 31% last June) and Fateh would receive 43%

(same as in June). Percentage of those who would vote for other

factions and parties stands today at 11% and the undecided at 16%.

* Satisfaction with the performance of Abbas increases slightly from

46% last June to 48% in this poll. Level of dissatisfaction reaches

47% today.

* Positive evaluation of the performance of the government of Salam

Fayyad remains as it was last June standing at 34% and the negative

evaluation at 34%. Similarly, positive evaluation of Haniyeh's

government stands today at 34% and negative evaluation at 39%. Last

June, positive evaluation of Haniyeh's government stood at 37% and

negative evaluation at 35%. Today, 33% say Fayyad's government is the

legitimate one while 27% say Haniyeh's government is the legitimate

one. Last June, belief in the legitimacy of the Fayyad government

reached 31% compared to 29% for Haniyeh's. Last March, Haniyeh's

government was perceived as legitimate by 34%.

* Perception of personal and family security and safety increases in

the West Bank from 40% last June to 43% in this poll. But the

percentage of personal and family security and safety in the Gaza

Strip is higher than in the West Bank as it reaches 54% (compared to

49% in Gaza last June).

* By contrast, positive evaluation of the overall conditions of

Palestinians in the West Bank is higher than in the Gaza Strip, with

only 8% describing conditions on the Gaza Strip as good or very good

and 27% describing the same conditions in the West Bank and good or

very good. Last June, positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza

Strip stood at 5% compared to 25% in the West Bank.

* Similarly, 34% give a positive evaluation of the status of democracy

in the West Bank while only 24% describe the same conditions in the

Gaza Strip as good or very good.

* An overwhelming majority (69%) opposes Hamas's armed entry into the

Shijaiah neighborhood in the Gaza Strip (an event that led to several

deaths and the escape of several members of Hillis family to Israel)

while only 20% support it. Support for Hamas's action increases in

the Gaza Strip, reaching 35% compared to 12% in the West Bank. The

wide gap in support between the two areas might reflect a greater

Hamas media influence in Gaza Strip compared to the West Bank.

Indeed, our findings show that 21% in the Gaza Strip watch Hamas's

satellite TV station, al Aqsa, compared to only 6% in the West Bank.

* 23% believe that Fateh is responsible for the Gaza explosion that led

to the death of five Hamas members last June while 43% believe it was

not responsible; 33% say they do not know.

* A majority of 63% believes that Abbas term as president ends in

January 2009, as Hamas claims (i.e., four years after he was

elected), while only 23% believe that his term extends to five years

ending in January 2010, as the presidency claims.

 

This PSR survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer

Stiftung in Ramallah

 

End of press release